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Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Store Championship Cardpoint
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
0-9-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.6%
avg ELO -9.0 per match
expected value
37.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1094
· median 1094
· range 1092–1095
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1156
Q3 1319
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 35.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
